Since 2012, the Scottish Album Of The Year (SAY) Award has quietly intimated itself into the fabric of the Scottish music scene, becoming a barometer for success for the many acts who make the longlist and championing the broad range of musical genres that Scotland excels in. It’s become a place where Scottish music can be celebrated without having to have national reach, and where tentpole acts like Arab Strap can rub shoulders with fledgling songwriters like Theo Bleak or Lucia & The Best Boys. 

It may be a celebration but it’s also a competition, one with a £20,000 cash prize for the winner. Out of the ten acts put on the shortlist, only one will scoop the prize at a special ceremony in Stirling on Thursday 24 October. So, who do we think will win, and which albums should you give a spin? 

The frontrunners 

Whilst they’re by no means the only albums in the shortlist with reach outside of Scotland, both Barry Can’t Swim and corto.alto have undoubtedly made a splash across the UK with their Mercury nominated albums (When Will We Land? and Bad With Names, respectively).

Both acts may be more interested in crafting soundscapes than lyrics, but they couldn’t be more different; Barry Can’t Swim’s peppy electronica relies heavily on the Fred Again.. playbook of found sound lyrics and chintzy emotive piano playing, while corto.alto is continuing to forage in the lush environs of what he describes as ‘future jazz’. 

Past SAYs have shown that being nominated for a Mercury will vastly increase the chance of your album being crowned the winner of the SAY Award (see Young Fathers, nominated for a Mercury in 2023 with Heavy Heavy before picking up the SAY Award, and Mogwai, who enjoyed a nod from Mercury before scooping the SAY in 2021 for As The Love Continues). Unless SAY have drastically changed their rationale, our money’s on Barry Can’t Swim or corto.alto for the win. 

The old hands

It’s been a vintage year for well-established acts and the SAY Awards have packed in a few veterans from the Scottish music scene. Arguably the most enduring band on the list is Arab Strap, who’ve picked up a nomination for their anxious, anti-social media album I'm totally fine with it 👍don't give a fuck anymore 👍. Moffat himself picked up the very first SAY Award in 2012 for his Bill Wells collaboration Everything’s Getting Older. I'm Totally fine… is packed with the same finely executed pathos (anyone who doesn’t tear up during ‘Safe & Well’ has a heart of stone) and would be a worthy winner.

Also in the mix is Rachel Sermanni, the Strathspey dream-folk songwriter who’s earned a nod for her fifth album Dreamer Awake. Lilting and revelatory, it’s perhaps her strongest work to date, combining intricate stories and a full band sound that's packed with power. Each album from Sermanni seems to be a marker for her personal life, and Dreamer Awake finds her settling down but no less willing to uncover the phantasmagoria of Scottish folk tradition.

Finally there’s the mid-tempo folk of Kathryn William & Withered Hand, two Scottish music luminaries who’ve teamed up for Wilson Williams. It’s arguably the most gentle album on the shortlist, recalling the kind of untroubling indie from the mid-2000s. 

They’re all albums worthy of a win, and could continue the SAY trend of awarding established acts over straight-up newcomers. 

The up and comers 

Two young upstarts could very well swoop in to grab the gong from more established acts. First is Theo Bleak for her EP Pain, which has been gaining traction for its Soccer Mommy-ish hooks and soaring vocals. Then there’s Lucia & The Best Boys for their debut album Burning Castles, which has the baroque pop and erratic time signatures of Caroline Polachek and the gothic trappings of mid-career Depeche Mode. It'd be a deviation from the usual SAY template if either won, but not an unwelcome one. 

SAY Award public ceremony, Albert Halls, Stirling, Thursday 24 October.